It's now impossible to sort through all the explanations and theories concerning the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, but two theories seem to stand out today: One very persuasive, and one nearly ridiculous.
A post on Google+ by the pilot Chris Goodfellow suggests what seems to me–and to others–a plausible explanation. The left turn that the plane took put it on a direct course for Palau Langkawi, an airport with a 13,000-foot strip "with an approach over water with no obstacles." The pilot, Goodfellow speculates, "was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport." The loss of communication makes perfect sense in the event of an electrical fire. The first response would be to pull all the circuits and try to isolate the bad one.
And to turn toward safe harbor:
We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do – you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport.
Speculation, yes. But more intelligent than so much of what we've heard. James Fallows of The Atlantic, who has written often about aviation, writes, "Goodfellow says he is certain this is what happened: 'No doubt in my mind.' I think there's doubt about everything concerning this flight. But his explanation makes better sense than anything else I've heard so far."
Oh, and the other explanation that caught my eye: The aircraft is parked somewhere, ready to be used by someone as a giant bomb. "It could have landed somewhere, filled with explosives, and then sent somewhere to cause some great damage." This comes not from a pilot, or an aviation or terrorism expert, but, sadly, a far more important and influential source: Rep. Michael McCaul, a Republican from Texas who is the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee.
We're at day 10. If McCaul is right, the would-be terrorists are taking an awfully long time to plan their strike.
-Paul Raeburn
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