Yes, we done it. At least, some of it. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, UK's Met Office, and elsewhere have a package of reports in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association that, news reports say, add up to a nos culpa, which means I think same as a collective mea culpa. The package includes NOAA's annual report on such things, this edition being the State of the Climate 2011. Some droughts, storm onslaughts and other weather strangeness can be attributed, via one or two sigmas worth of confidence, to the cumulative effects of greenhouse gases and other human forcings on climate.
This is getting considerable attention even in a media world that is shrunken, jaded, and beaten down by the denialist barrage.And, the news is not new, not to those who read news regularly. But the official, heavily-reviewed nature of the core document, from NOAA, lifts it above the noise.
Sample Stories:
- ScienceNow (via Wired) Richard A. Kerr:Global Warming Linked to 2011 Weather Extremes ; Kerr makes the point clearly while simultaneously stressing that some events were still so probably in a pre-warmed world their recurrence now may not mean much.
- NY Times - Justin Gillis: Global Warming Makes Heat Waves More Likely, Study Finds ;
- CNN - Moni Basu: Extreme weather: Get ready to see more of it, scientists say ;
- AP - Malcolm Ritter: Global warming tied to risk of weather extremes ;
- Reuters - Deborah Zabarenko: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Linked in Studies Examining Texas Drought and U.K. Heat ;
- Science News - Janet Raloff: Warming indicted for extreme weather ; Ive seen the term before, but didn't realize it is a recognized discipline: "attribution science" appears prominently in this article.
- Washington Post - Jason Samenow: NOAA scientist: 80 percent chance recent heat records due to climate change ; A blog post, with a distinctive way of quoting a source at length.
- Is lots more, not much workday left...
Related News:
- LA Times (opinion) Dan Turner: Can somebody, please, help George Will understand climate?
- CNBC - Patti Domm: Feds Declare Drought Emergency Across 1,000 Counties ;
Grist for the Mill: NOAA Press Release containing a perhaps deliberately sly line - "Worldwide, 2011 was the co0lest year on record.." (wait for it) "..since 2008." Wow. Global warming stopped three years ago? No, but the deniosphere is being shined on, one thinks. ; State of the Climate 2011 on line ;
- Charlie Petit
Comments
Given the high probability that the greatest policy imperative of the next 40 years is a massive shift to non-carbon-emitting renewables, the climate change story deserves the heavy weight Tracker gives it.
One angle of this story that didn't get much attention, although flagged heavily near the top in the actual 238-page NOAA report, is that satellite measurements of the atmosphere, particularly since the late 1970s, have taken their place alongside the "in situ" surface measurements -- as an independent check on the trends.
In other words, denialists should take note of a second major class of evidence on climate change that checks, and largely validates, the trends that began to look worrisome around 1970, at the time of the Williamstown, MA, conference on human impact on climate, which I reported for The Boston Globe.
The NOAA release and report also noted that additional classes of evidence are slated for future annual reviews.
It's probably worth noting that Justin Gillis of the NY Times also reported the NOAA study (page 11 in the edition I saw on July 11), with one skeptical voice saying some of the science looks hasty and calls loudly for checking.